WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation said this year’s peak shipping season has lasted longer than usual, but the association expects those volumes to taper heading into the holiday season.
That’s according to the latest data from the Global Port Tracker report released this week by the NRF and Hackett Associates.
“U.S. ports have seen high volume levels throughout this year’s longer-than-usual peak season and numbers are still strong even as the season winds down,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Unfortunately, these volumes have led to backups at some ports, particularly on the West Coast where cargo has sat for extended periods waiting to be transferred to rail cars. We’ve also seen the threat of a strike at the nation’s largest port complex in recent days. Nonetheless, most holiday merchandise is already here, and retailers are working closely with their supply chain partners to ensure that the supply of holiday gifts continues to flow smoothly.”
Earlier this month, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 26 — which represents watchmen at several container terminals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — reached a short-term contract extension with the Pacific Maritime Association, thwarting the threat of a strike. The contract, which has been extended three times for short periods, has now extended through Nov. 20. The previous contract expired in July 2025, and as of this writing, no long-term agreement has been reached.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said this year’s months-long peak season was connected to the extended 2025 season, which saw volume upticks because of retailers attempting to import merchandise before tariffs could take effect.
“At the start of 2026, that surge appeared to have ended after the Supreme Court struck down high ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. Expectations of another extended peak season consequently faded,” Hackett said. “However, new tariffs introduced in the second quarter prompted a renewed surge in imports beginning in May that continued through mid-October. Consumer spending supported this influx, with households continuing to buy despite rising inflation.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.37 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — of loaded imports in September, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 3.4% from August and up 12.6% year over year to make September the busiest month of the year amid the extended peak. It was the third-busiest month since Global Port Tracker began keeping records, topped only by 2.39 million TEU in July 2025 and 2.4 million TEU in May 2022.
Ports have not yet reported October numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.26 million TEU, up 9.1% year over year. November is forecast at 2.05 million TEU, up 1.2% year over year, and December at 2.03 million TEU, up 1.3%.
Those numbers would bring 2026 to a total of 26 million TEU, up 2% from last year’s 25.4 million TEU. The first half of 2026 totaled 12.7 million TEU, up 1.1% from the same period in 2025.
January 2027 is forecast at 2.04 million TEU, down 3% year over year; February at 1.89 million TEU, down 0.5%; and March at 1.92 million TEU, down 11.2%.
